Global Desalination Capacity: Trends Driving the Next Wave of Plants
Where capacity stands today
The International Desalination Association's 2023 yearbook places global contracted capacity at approximately 105 million m³/d across more than 21,000 plants. Reverse osmosis (RO) now accounts for around 70% of that figure — a share that has grown every year since 2010 as spiral-wound membrane costs fell below US $0.30/m² and energy recovery devices raised system recovery to above 45%.
The MENA dominance — and its limits
The Middle East and North Africa still commands roughly 48% of global capacity. Saudi Arabia's NEOM and Jubail III projects are adding a combined 2.4 million m³/d by 2027, and the UAE's Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park–linked desal programme is expected to reach 150,000 m³/d of solar-powered capacity. Yet the region's per-capita cost of water production is rising as shallow coastal aquifers decline and brine disposal regulations tighten — trends that are forcing a re-examination of zero-liquid-discharge concepts.
Emerging markets: India, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America
India's National Water Mission has set a target of 6 million m³/d of desalinated supply by 2030, concentrated in Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. Tenders in 2022–24 have been won at below US $0.55/m³ for large-scale SWRO — a benchmark that competes directly with long-distance bulk water transfer. Sub-Saharan Africa remains nascent (under 1% of global capacity) but pipeline projects in South Africa and Namibia signal genuine momentum.
Technology mix and cost drivers
Electrodialysis reversal (EDR) is taking modest share in brackish groundwater applications where TDS is below 5,000 mg/L, because its energy consumption scales linearly with salt load rather than with hydraulic pressure. Forward osmosis remains largely pre-commercial despite two decades of research investment. The most watched development is the continued reduction in RO membrane area costs: projections from IDA's technology roadmap suggest a floor near US $0.18/m² by 2030, which would push large-scale SWRO levelised costs below US $0.40/m³ in favourable locations.
What operators and engineers should watch
- Specific energy consumption for new SWRO plant: the 2.5–3.0 kWh/m³ benchmark achieved by best-in-class plants in 2024 is not yet the industry median (which sits closer to 3.8 kWh/m³).
- Brine management: concentrate disposal is the fastest-growing cost component in coastal plants and may become the binding constraint on siting before 2030.
- Renewable integration: direct DC-coupled solar + RO is proving viable at small-to-medium scale; battery buffering for grid-connected plants reduces curtailment but adds 15–25% to capital cost.